A XAU/USD contract has two prices that decide everything, and neither is the one on screen when you click. One is fixed the moment the order is accepted, the other the moment the term expires. This page sets out which quotes are used, how the payout is calculated, and what happens when the market has not moved — or is closed — at expiry.
| Price | Where it comes from | What it decides |
|---|---|---|
| Open price | The first quote published after your order is accepted | The starting line |
| Settlement price | The mid price of the first quote after expiry | The finishing line |
| Result | Direction, then the distance between the two | Stake lost, returned, or paid out |
Only these two prices are compared. The high and low reached during the term have no effect, which is why a trade can be comfortably in profit for four minutes and still lose. That is the nature of a fixed-term contract.
When you press Up or Down, the platform notes the newest quote it holds and waits for a fresher one before filling. The open price comes from that newer quote, and the wait is capped at a couple of seconds so an order never hangs.
This removes a familiar edge — clicking on a price that has already moved — at the cost of a fill that can differ from what you saw by a few cents. For terms of five minutes and longer, an Up order fills at the ask and a Down order at the bid, so the spread sits in the entry; shorter terms fill at the mid. Either way, the price on the ticket is the price used at settlement.
At expiry the platform does not reach back for the last tick. It waits for the next quote and uses that quote's mid price, rounded to three decimals. If the feed is late, settlement waits rather than freezing an old number — which is why a receipt's timestamp can sit slightly after the expiry on the ticket.
Using the mid at both ends makes the exit symmetric: neither side is closed at the wrong side of the spread. The trading cost therefore sits in the payout rate, and for longer terms in the entry price. No commission is charged on settlement.
| Situation | Condition | What happens to the stake |
|---|---|---|
| Win | Up and settlement above open, or Down and settlement below open | Stake returned plus profit at the published rate |
| Loss | The same comparison, the other way round | Stake is lost in full |
| Tie | The two prices differ by less than 0.01 | Stake returned in full, no profit |
Profit is the stake multiplied by the payout rate. A 200 stake on a term paying 80 percent returns 160 on a win, so 360 comes back. A loss returns nothing beyond the stake already committed. No position can lose more than the amount staked, and there is no margin call, because the maximum loss is known before the order is placed.
Suppose you stake 200 on Up for five minutes, with a payout rate of 80 percent.
Open price: 2,401.20 — first quote after the order was accepted.
Settlement price: 2,402.05 — first quote after expiry.
The settlement is 0.85 above the open, outside the tie band, so the trade wins.
Profit: 200 × 0.80 = 160. The balance receives 200 + 160 = 360.
At 2,400.90 the same trade would have lost the 200. At 2,401.204 the 0.004 difference would have fallen inside the one-cent band and the stake would have returned untouched. Distance does not scale the payout: a forty-dollar rally and a forty-cent drift pay the same, because the contract is a bet on direction at a fixed time.
The band is one cent. At around 2,400 an ounce that is a very narrow window, and it exists for a reason: a market that has not moved has produced no directional outcome. Calling it a loss would take a stake on a coin landing on its edge; calling it a win would pay for nothing. The band is set by the platform and shown on the ticket before you confirm.
Gold does not trade around the clock. If expiry falls in the daily break or over a weekend, the platform does not settle at the last pre-close price. Settlement waits for the first quote after trading reopens, and that quote sets the price. The position stays open longer than its term, and the reopen gap counts in full in either direction. No interest or adjustment is applied for the wait. Check the session clock before choosing a term that would expire near the break, especially on a Friday in New York.
| Term | Payout rate | Win rate needed to break even |
|---|---|---|
| 60 seconds | 78% | 56.2% |
| 5 minutes | 80% | 55.6% |
| 10 minutes | 81% | 55.2% |
| 15 minutes | 82% | 54.9% |
| 30 minutes | 85% | 54.1% |
| 60 minutes | 88% | 53.2% |
The right-hand column matters most: at a 78 percent payout you must be right more than 56 times in a hundred just to stay level. The rate on your ticket governs; the table is the schedule as published, and rates can change.
The open price comes from the first quote published after your order is accepted, not from the quote on screen when you clicked. That prevents anyone from trading on a stale price. The difference is usually a few cents. For terms of five minutes and longer, an Up order fills at the ask and a Down order at the bid, so the spread is included in the entry as well.
The trade settles as a tie and the stake is returned in full with no profit and no loss. The tie band is one cent: any absolute difference between settlement and open below 0.01 counts as unchanged. A tie is neither a win nor a loss, and repeated ties do not roll into the next contract.
No. A fixed-term contract runs to expiry and has no early exit, so the only prices that decide the outcome are the open price and the settlement price. If expiry falls while the market is closed, settlement is deferred to the first quote after trading reopens, and that quote sets the price.
Related reading: how margin and liquidation work, what the spread costs on entry, and the gold position calculator for checking a stake against a risk budget before you commit it.
Trade the gold price →Trading on the spot gold price carries risk of loss. This page is educational and is not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.